Overseas Property World

After reading the regional and business press, one can’t help but feel that the Dubai property market is currently at a cross roads. But it really is still heading downwards. Read on for a detailed look at the current Dubai property market, and my forecasts for the future.

The news is conflicting. On one hand we hear that rents are down, and on the other we hear that apartment prices in the prime areas have risen 8%, following a rise in villa prices also recently reported.

Another recent report by Japanese investment bank Normura, tells of a Dubai in 2011 filled with apartment and office tower blocks with no one in them. The report from Normura said so many offices and apartments are due to come on market in the next two years, that unless the current population decline is reversed and 150,000 jobs can be created, then they are going to lie empty. The latest report from Nomura estimates that around 25% of Dubai’s office space is currently empty with around 5% in Abu Dhabi.

This comes after similar warnings of population reduction from several other big names from recent weeks:

• Jones Lang LaSalle says Dubai’s population could decline 10% this year
• Egyptian based bank EFG Hermes says that the UAE population as a whole could contract by 5.5%
• The vacancy rate is expected to rise over the next two years as projects that are already under construction reach completion, and rents are expected to fall a further 10%.

To counteract these reports come the announced 3rd quarter profits of $178m from Dubai’s biggest developer Emaar properties. On Wednesday land sales in Dubai totalled 189.65 million Dirhams (31,680approx.).

Also on a positive note a new report by the Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai commented on how there is massive growth in the development of Small and Medium sized enterprises in Dubai, and they are contributing growing amounts to Dubai’s GDP. According to the report these new businesses are vital to Dubai’s survival because they bring it away from markets that it is too heavily reliant on like oil and micro-carbons.

There is also a report today of a 19.5% increase in traffic through Dubai international airport, and many reports of literally dozens of real estate funds entering Dubai to buy distressed properties.

So, what does all this add up to for the property market? Well, everyone knows I have never been the biggest fan of the Dubai property market and that isn’t about to change anytime soon.

The news on SME’s driving employment is good for Dubai’s long term future, but in the short term you just can’t argue with the hard figures: there is far more residential and commercial stock than people looking to rent or buy residential or commercial units, and this is only going to worsen with stock increasing as the population decreases.

As for the funds: sure they will take a lot of the stock off the market but they will ultimately be looking to make a profit. Their determining what the market does with their decisions on when to hold, and how many units to release at a given time is not good news for buyers. Therefore the funds are not good news for the market either in the short term.

If you want my opinion: — and you obviously do if you have taken the time to read this far on my blog — it will take at least 2-3 years and probably at least 5 for enough of the small and medium sized businesses of today to become big enough to really impact on the market. We will be looking to at least 2015 before the memories of Dubai’s dark side are sufficiently subsided for there to be any real interest from private overseas buyers.

By 2015 the oversupply problem should be manageable, and rents should start to see some steady increases again. It is up to you whether you want to buy now and wait that long — and probably a fair bit longer — for any real return on your investment.

Don’t get me wrong, Dubai is great for businesses; facilities and infrastructure wise, and you can get some great office space very cheaply and getting cheaper. But as I deal in residential I am saying 2015 before it is worth buying anything residential in Dubai.

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