Overseas Property World

I just dug out an old article I wrote in 2008, in which I recommended 4 emerging property markets for investment, I thought it would be good to take a look at them and see how wrong or maybe right I was. Here we go:

1 Brazil:

We all know that I was right about this one. The only thing I was wrong about was that the Brazilian economy wouldn’t see any contraction during the downturn, because, — I believed — continued growth in Asia’s emerging markets would continue to fuel growth in Brazil. The Brazilian economy contracted by 5% in a very short space of time, starting from the end of 2008, but it has also enjoyed one of the fastest recoveries.

The contraction was like a very small blip compared to Brazil’s massive growth in the last few years. Recently reports have highlighted the fact that rising affluence has led to Brazil’s middle class being some 91million strong — a large proportion of the population. There are already signs of foreign investors flocking to capitalise on this massive growth in demand for affordable housing in Brazil. Then you have Brazil as a the World Cup host in 2014, and the Olympic host in 2016, both of which will increase tourism, affluence and bring increased sales and prices in the luxury sector. A resounding pat on the back there then.

2: Cambodia

Cambodia has suffered massively during the credit crunch. It was always a high-risk investment, and so the minute risk-appetite started to wean, sales of Cambodian property to foreigners dried up almost completely. At the same time the banking industry was hit hard, and so was the wider economy with the massive drop in demand for Cambodia’s key exports such as textiles and a massive drop in tourism. While I still think Cambodian property has bags of investment potential, my assertions of growth in the short term were badly mistaken.

3: Philippines

During the global financial meltdown the Philippines’ economy has continued to grow strongly, fuelled mainly by continued growth in outsourcing and worker remittances. Internal demand for property has remained strong, and it has benefited from resurgence in foreign demand from the second half of last year. That’s another back-slap I think.

4: Canada

Canada’s housing market has enjoyed a massive rebound throughout 2009, and in fact the government, which just months early acted to stimulate the market, was forced to look at measures to cool it.

This happened in several places around the world, because of a liquidity surge brought on by government stimulus into an economy that never crashed as bad as was expected and was seen in the worst hit parts of the world. Therefore anyone who invested in Canada property when I recommended it in 2008, is probably either sitting even and hoping the growth continues, or a little up and hoping the growth continues.